Using polls to forecast popular vote share for US presidential elections 2016 and 2020: An optimal forecast combination based on ensemble empirical model

Markets vs. Polls as Predictors: An Historical Assessment of US Presidential Elections

Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations

Three vote-share equations are estimated and analyzed in this paper, one for presidential elections, one for on-term House elections, and one for midterm House elections. The sample period is 1916–2006. Considering the three equations together allows one to test whether the same economic variables affect each and to examine various serial correlation and coattail possibilities. The resulting th...

An Historical Assessment of US Presidential Elections

Forecast Evaluation and Combination

An Optimal Multi-variable Grey Model for Logistics Demand Forecast

The grey system theory, which has been extensively used in many areas, is appropriate for forecasting. It is necessary to put forward new models or algorithms to improve its performance, especially for forecast accuracy. In the forecast process of grey model, the size of data sample and the number of variables can affect forecast accuracy. In this paper, we first put forward a new method to cho...